🔮 Grok: Predicts July 2025 Unemployment
Unemployment rate expected to rise to 7.1% (increasing). Anticipated job growth of 5,000-10,000, mainly in services.
Unemployment rate to remain stable at 6.4%, supported by construction and technology sectors.
🔮 @CHATGPT: Job Market Forecast: July 2025
🇨🇦 Canada (National Forecast)
Unemployment Rate: 7.3% (↑)
Expected Job Growth: +5,000 to +10,000 jobs
- Services (retail, finance, utilities) show modest gains
- Manufacturing and public sector hiring slow
- Youth unemployment remains high (~15%)
🌲 British Columbia (Provincial Forecast)
Unemployment Rate: 6.5% (stable)
Expected Job Growth: +3,000 to +7,000 jobs
- Construction and tourism lead seasonal hiring
- Tech shows mild but positive hiring trend
- Risks: wildfire disruptions, soft housing market
🔮@PERPLEXITY: Job Market Prediction: July 2025
Based on current trends, economic indicators, and AI-driven insights:
- Canada: Unemployment may rise to 7.1–7.2%, with modest full-time job gains and continued weakness in part-time and youth employment.
- British Columbia: Outperforms national averages, but job competition increases as population growth outpaces new openings.
- Wage growth remains stable at ~3.4% year-over-year.
- AI-driven hiring remains cautious, with essential roles prioritized and automation adoption rising.
What This Means for Canadians
Canada’s job market in July 2025 shows unemployment at 7.0%, driven by trade uncertainty with the U.S., population growth outpacing job creation, and high immigration. Youth (15-24) face a tough 20.1% unemployment rate, but retail and finance offer opportunities. British Columbia’s stable 6.4% rate, supported by construction and tech, suggests resilience. Job seekers should upskill in tech or healthcare to stay competitive.
Unemployment Rates: Canada & Provinces/Territories (May 2025)
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in May 2025, up 0.1 points from April. British Columbia is at 6.4%, up 0.2 points. Below are the rates with progress bars.
Canada: 7.0%
Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.7%
Prince Edward Island: 8.2%
Nova Scotia: 6.5%
New Brunswick: 6.3%
Quebec: 5.8%
Ontario: 7.9%
Manitoba: 5.9%
Saskatchewan: 4.2%
Alberta: 7.4%
British Columbia: 6.4%
Yukon: 3.6%
Northwest Territories: 5.0%
Nunavut: 9.0%
Source: Statistics Canada, May 2025 Labour Force Survey ℹ️ Data from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, May 2025
Unemployment by Age Group
| Age Group | Unemployment Rate | Key Insights |
|---|---|---|
| Youth (15-24) | 20.1% | Highest since 2009 recession (excluding pandemic). Limited full-time opportunities in retail/food services. |
| Adults (25-54) | 5.6% | Women gained 42,000 jobs, men lost 31,000. Service sector growth offsets manufacturing losses. |
| Older Workers (55+) | 5.0% | Stable employment, little change in job numbers. |
Source: Statistics Canada, May 2025 ℹ️ Data from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, May 2025
Job Gains and Losses by Sector
| Sector | Job Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | +43,000 | Recovery from March/April losses, driven by wholesale trade demand. |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate | +12,000 | Steady growth since October 2024, fueled by financial services expansion. |
| Public Administration | -32,000 | Unwinding of temporary election-related hiring from April. |
| Accommodation & Food Services | -16,000 | Trade uncertainty and reduced consumer spending impact hospitality. |
| Transportation & Warehousing | -16,000 | Trade disruptions and reduced demand for logistics. |
Source: Statistics Canada, May 2025 ℹ️ Data from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, May 2025
Current Unemployment Statistics
| Region | Unemployment Rate | Change (Apr-May) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 7.0% | +0.1* | Increasing due to trade uncertainty, population growth, immigration. |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 9.7% | +0.1 | Rising, impacted by trade and seasonal factors. |
| Prince Edward Island | 8.2% | +1.6* | Sharp increase, driven by seasonal job losses. |
| Nova Scotia | 6.5% | -0.7* | Decreasing, supported by job gains in services. |
| New Brunswick | 6.3% | -0.6* | Decreasing, with employment growth in retail. |
| Quebec | 5.8% | -0.2 | Stable, diverse economy supports resilience. |
| Ontario | 7.9% | +0.1 | Rising, hit by manufacturing losses. |
| Manitoba | 5.9% | +0.6* | Increasing, affected by trade disruptions. |
| Saskatchewan | 4.2% | -0.1 | Stable, supported by agriculture and utilities. |
| Alberta | 7.4% | +0.3 | Increasing, impacted by trade uncertainty. |
| British Columbia | 6.4% | +0.2 | Rising slightly, but stable with construction/tech support. |
| Yukon | 3.6% | -0.3 | Decreasing, low rate reflects small labour market. |
| Northwest Territories | 5.0% | +1.3* | Increasing, driven by seasonal and economic factors. |
| Nunavut | 9.0% | +1.2* | Rising, impacted by limited job opportunities. |
Sources: Statistics Canada, May 2025, Job Bank ℹ️ Data from Statistics Canada and Job Bank, May 2025
Additional Insights
- Youth Challenges: 20.1% youth unemployment reflects competition for retail/food jobs, worsened by high immigration and population growth. B.C. lost 25,000 full-time youth jobs since 2023.
- Regional Variations: Yukon’s 3.6% rate is Canada’s lowest; Newfoundland and Labrador’s 9.7% is among the highest due to trade and seasonal impacts.
- Economic Factors: U.S. tariffs hurt manufacturing and transportation; B.C.’s Woodfibre LNG project boosts construction jobs.
Future Outlook
Grok predicts Canada’s unemployment may reach 7.2%-7.3% by late 2025 due to ongoing trade uncertainty, population growth, and immigration pressures. B.C.’s rate should stay lower, supported by tech and infrastructure. Youth unemployment remains a challenge, needing upskilling programs. Retail and finance may grow, while manufacturing struggles with tariffs.
Sources
Disclaimer
AI predictions are for informational purposes only. We disclaim all liability for their use. Users should not rely on these predictions for future planning or financial decisions. Always consult professional advisors.
